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Judging How Long Raids Will Take

I Almost Went With A Car's Timing Chain
Raiding isn't an exact science.  Raids run with the same group of raiders, players and classes, every week will see noticeable differences.  People may be sleepy, annoyed, distracted or emotional, all mental states that can easily mess with someone's performance.  Toss some respeccing, gear changes, and pot requirements into the mix and the stew gets thicker.  The final ingredient is the base, which instance your actually running. The new Onyxia takes no more than 20 minutes once the group has buffed, while Ulduar can take a few hours.  Trial of the Crusader is in between and Naxxramas became progressively shorter as the early group of raiders geared up.  With all these variables I've found it increasingly difficult to judge just how long I'll be in a given raid, and that's assuming things go well.  If the guild is off, or I've joined a fail PUG, then I might as well throw darts at a clock to guess when I'll be done. Every participant of a PvE-focused MMORPG knows this.  We know the "risks" of getting in a large group.  We know that an hour can turn in to three very easily.  Try explaining this to an unknowing better half, your mother, or your father that is eagerly waiting for you to try out your new golf clubs with him.  That's why I've come up with a new, possibly revolutionary, philosophy when guessing raid times; just f@&*ing lie. Yes folks, I've begun subscribing to the "white lie" philosophy.  Normally, I never lie, but I can't find a downside to this scheme.  The people I'll lie to don't understand how erratic raiding can be, so I either have to lie (can we just call it exaggerating?) or risk disappointing/annoying them.  Up until recently I've done just that.  "It's TotC honey, should only take me 45 minutes."  Close to two hours later and an angered girlfriend confronts me at the door with a tilted head, a steady glare and an impatient foot tap.  Couch looks comfortable tonight! Isn't it just easier for everyone if they are told it'll take 2-3 hours all the time?  If it comes out to be only an hour then they're happy, and I look like a good guy for working quickly.  Brownie points people, brownie points! From now on, when I say "I'm raiding" it'll mean "you will be lucky to see me before 11:00 PM."  I hate to have to work like this, but there's too many unknowns in raiding to use the best case scenario as a timer.

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