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Blizzard Not Worried About Other MMOs; Still Retaining Users

Morhaime Loves To Throw Numbers At PeopleWarning: The post contains business information that may not be suitable for some minds. In the event that you hate business, market analysis, facts, quotes, words and things of that nature, you may want to read some other posts. However, it is good to have these things when you try and argue with your friends about which MMO is the best.

Blizzard Entertainment has certainly struck a gold mine with World of Warcraft. ProjectLore is living proof of its popularity and cultural impact. I could give you all numerous examples to the phenomenon that is World of Warcraft, but its 11 million subscribers worldwide, should be enough to convince gamers.

Since WoW's launch in 2004, it has constantly been put up against other MMORPGs. The first of which was the sequel to the previous industry leader, EverQuest 2. It took a few months, but it became readily apparent that WoW had won that first battle. The next battle was fought with some old Blizzard employees and their first title, Guild Wars, in April 2005. The trend continues, with a string of MMOs trying to dethrone World of Warcraft, but none putting more than a dent in the armor. A pair by Turbine (Dungeon and Dragons Online & Lord of the Rings Online), the terrible MMO from the Matrix universe (The Matrix Online), a MMO from the father of MMOs Richard Garriot (Tabula Rasa), and the brutal Age of Conan, all pail in comparison to World of Warcraft's influence.

With the exception of EverQuest 2, I only felt that Dungeon & Dragons Online: Stormreach had a chance to upset WoW's stride. That is until Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning was released in September. Mythic Entertainment released WAR to solid reviews and has posted impressive subscription rates since. To date, it is the closest anything has come to stealing WoW's thunder, holding over 750,000 subscribers with more than 1.5 million units shipped to retailers. Unlike AoC, it doesn't appear that the subscribers are leaving in droves after the free 30-days either.

Is Blizzard worried? It doesn't appear so, but maybe they should be.  Just a little. When Age of Conan was doing so hot its first months, Blizzard sat back and watched their members return, “about 40% of those players have returned to World of Warcraft," according to CEO and co-founder Mike Morhaime. That was just two months after AoC launched, so one would imagine that the number has only grown since then.

Yesterday, as part of Activision-Blizzard's business mumbo-jumbo, Morhaime returned to update that number, and included WAR in the statistics. A whooping 68% of people who left for AoC have returned to WoW. Mythic Entertainment's title seems to have faired a bit worse than AoC. Almost two months out from WAR's launch and Morhaime reports a return rate of 46% to AoC's 40%.

In fairness to WAR versus AOC, many people are likely returning to WoW for Thursday's release of Wrath of the Lich King. In fairness to both of them, just because players have re-subscribed to World of Warcraft doesn't mean they aren't still participating in the other MMO. Yet, according to research, most MMO players only subscribe to one title.

The numbers show that WAR has been the biggest threat to World of Warcraft, but even a shiny new title with an incredibly dark universe and more mature theme, hasn't been able to retain its users when put up against an expansion. Let us pray that the competitors stay in business, and new titles make it to market for years to come. This will ensure that Blizzard has to keep the design juices and creativity flowing. Competition is a good thing.

Anyone think Blizzard should be scared of some upcoming MMOs?  Aion?  Star Wars: The Old Republic? LEGO Online?  To be honest, I think LEGO Online just might grab some impressive numbers.

Reader Comments (36)

Yeah I dont know how nothing has come along to dethrone WoW but hey im not complaining :)

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterJosh

I´m curious to try out Aion, but I know that I won't like it's end game content. I want to try it out for the graphical experience. On the other hand, I look forward to Champions Online but World of Warcraft will have to due for now.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterManovan

Thanks for the observation. It would seem that Star Wars: The Old Republic might have chance, if Lucasart doesn't meddle to much with the end product, as they did with Star Wars Galaxies.

By the way. I think you meant "pale" instead of "pail". I also suspect that "whooping" was probably meant to be "whopping".
Not trying to hate, just trying to be helpful.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterWa

They MAY have to worry about Star Trek Online and Star Wars but that's really only an appeal to fans of those series respectively. WoW is it's own universe and not based on a movie/TV franchise... I think that's part of why it appeals to so many players. When you hop into a world like Star Wars or The Matrix, you are expected to know a considerable amount of knowledge about those universes BEFORE you play the game. Even games like Guild Wars and Age of Conan expect you to know something about MMOs with their starting quests and thus they become quickly tired. That and there's so much to do in WoW... it definitely will not be beat out anytime soon.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterZeo

Star Wars is a solid enough name to have a chance, but Blizzard does what they do best, and they're not letting anyone knock them off to proverbial MMO hill.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterShaun

Hello Kitty Online might be the upset!!!

http://www.hellokittyonline.com/

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterGrido

Yes, competition is a great thing and not something to be afraid of if you're a fan of WoW. From competition comes innovation.

But here's another thing that people fail to realize. It's a GOOD thing for more than one MMO to be successful. It's good for the marketplace and for the future of MMOs. WoW won't be around forever, but it doesn't have to be "killed" by another game. The problem with most games and their publishers is they are trying to "knock off" the big guy and in so either make their game too similar to WoW or go the other way and try to reinvent the wheel.

Make a good game that people enjoy and everyone wins, yes including WoW.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterKida

The only possible MMO that I can see upsetting World of Warcraft in the next 3 or 4 years would be World of Starcraft. I just wish they'd go and actually make that game.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterPatrickD

First, why is Mike Morhime posing for a 3rd grade school photo.

Second, the only thing on the horizon that will even come close to WoW in the next few years will be the Star Wars MMO Lucasarts and BioWare are cooking up.

Beyond that maybe the thing 38 Studios is cooking up.

I'm guessing once the Warhammer hype dies down and Wrath is in full swing we'll see another rise in subscribers to WoW.

Honestly, I take a lot of stake in Blizzard developing the next WoW killer on their own.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterGene

LEGO Online sounds epic :)

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterIka

I play both WoW and WAR and it seems to me that WoW has such large numbers not just because it is a good game but because its very noob friendly. I think that WAR is a better game for a serious gamer but WoW is great for anyone who just dip in and out of a MMO.

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered Commentermacbethy

KOTOR was so amazing so The Old Republic should be very cool

November 7, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterZeb

Seems to me that the one thing other MMO's havent realized is: "If you cant run with the big dogs, stay on the porch". :) GO WOW! Lich King, 5 days. Northrend here we come. Let the new epic adventures begin.

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterReeper

The only one that could knock off World of Warcraft, is if Blizzard creates another Epic Noob Friendly MMO.

Even though, that would create even more competition within Blizzard Company. :P

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterHolydos

yea i think it is great when there is competition, bc then companies reel u in with the best. now as long as they dont over do it, with releasing to much too soon and running out of ideas, all mmos should be fine. i personally will get the dc universe for ps3 cause that looks promising. and yes the star wars and star trek both look to be amazing, even tho im not like a big big fan of those series. i wonder what would happen if they made a Fight Club MMO.......sorry just saw the movie after not seeing it for so long. but yes there are games coming out that would never dethrone wow (unless they screwed themselves up) but could off great and fair competition. but as long as blizzard can still secretly put addictive drugs in its game that keep me coming back, they will remain #1.

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered Commenterfriskydingo

MMOs eat too much time to subscribe to more than one for long ;(

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterOzzel's Cousin Fred

I'm sure there's a lot of other people out there in my boat: Getting older, can't invest the time it takes to be really successful in an MMORPG. I simply can't invest the time or money to establish myself in another game like this. It takes a long time to create a system of money making, leveling, raiding, etc. If I had the time and money, I'd at least try out these new games.

As it stands though, WoW will probably be the last MMO that I put time into. Although a really, really good KotR mmo could tempt me. :)

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterCloudbearer

I dont think the question were asking should be what will userp blizzard?

But

WHEN will blizzard run out of GOOD new ideas?
Thats the problem blizzard faces, once you start to run out of new ideas that please your client base... you're a gonner

having said this it doesnt stop blizzard from beeing the comapny producing the 'heir' to WoW's throne!

In my opinion the Devs are learning from past mistakes, if you take WAR, they built the classes people wanted to play, they gave healers DPS.
But again there were flaws cheif amoung which is that they advertised the game from Destros point of veiw, this made the light/dark split 80/20% on some relms! and ofc practicly no pve content was a mistake.

so the MMO that beets wow will have to solve all wow's flaws and offer new and interesting things at a time when wow has none....

November 8, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterPrower

Guilds war...horrible
Warhammer...so horrible I went back to wow
I quit Wow for like 6 months and wait for warhammer and the game was basically WoW with new class and horrible graphics. WAR's graphics were so bad I say nintendo 64 graphics look better. The UI was exactly like WoW and no PVE content and PVP was so lopsided toward Destro. The worse thing was Que times, on peak hours 300 odd ppl in que and 30 minute wait times, I am on a full server on WoW and the longest que time I have had was <3minutes. I dont think anything will dethrone WoW till Blizz dethrones with something better itself

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered Commentermagi

Enter Darkfall...

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterClaus

you guys didn't mention runescape... over 2million subscribers is not a big challenge but still fair i think it's a respectable game

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterSathas

Ummm...Blizzard does understand that when people quit they don't always tell why, right? I bet less than half the people that went to Warhammer from WoW put "I'm leaving because of Warhammer".

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered Commenterasonofsparda

I played WOW a lot for several years, and quit about a year ago when it became apparent Blizzard didn't understand a lot of crucial things, like having talents that don't totally suck, or having classes (like frost mages) that can be totally shut down from ever being able to cast their primary spell.

Looking at the patch notes that came out recently, though, it looks like they've finally pulled their heads out of their butts, and fixed these issues, finally.

That said, I won't be returning to WOW. Even though I will be buying WotLK, it'll be for my 60 year old aunt-in-law's birthday.

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterBill

And WAR is completely superior to WOW, except perhaps in terms of total content available. There's so many things in WAR that you just go, "Wow, I wish WOW had done things that way. It would have made the game a lot less crappy."

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterBill

KOTOR online has a chance to destroy WoW in my opinion. But then again there is always a chance for those guys to screw it up, just like the last Star Wars MMO.

November 9, 2008 | Unregistered CommenterDan

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