Project Lore

One of the fundamental things that players should understand about the WoW economy is that there is massive deflation. Items, in general, become less valuable over time as new items are introduced. Players no longer want iLvl 200 or even 213 crafted gear, as well geared players from high level raids can easily carry them through heroics or Naxxramas. As such, materials for crafted gear are less in demand than they once were. Blue gems should lose value once epic gems become accessible. Additionally, once an item is introduced, the players that want it the most will pay ridiculous prices to get it first. Prices lower over time as supply ramps up for non-top tier raiders. In general, its a bad idea to stockpile items. However, understanding how new changes will affect the economy and acting early can lead to huge profits. There are two major changes that will affect the economy in patch 3.2. The first is the introduction of epic gems; the second is that Emblems of Conquest are now obtainable in all pre-Crusader dungeons and raids. We will talk mainly about epic gems for now. Epic gems are obtained in a few different ways. Lets review:

• Alchemy Transmutes
• Icy Prism. You can't save them up now, so don't try
• Prospecting Titanium Ore
• Buying with Honor or Emblems of Heroism

Buying them with Honor and Emblems will probably be very unpopular, as everything will be dropping Emblems of Conquest and players will be eager to grab new gear before they will grab new gems. The other three will have a profound effect on the market. First, lets look at Alchemy transmutes. Most Alchemists are Elixir Masters. As as Alchemist myself, I can vouch for how useful this is. I make dozens of flasks a day, and this generates tons of gold. If I can get a friend to craft my elixirs who is elixir specced, Transmutation Master for myself might be profitable. Since transmutations are on a 20 hour cooldown, its hard to share that ability with anyone, but a group of a few alchemists could have 1 elixir master and all the rest be Transmutation Masters to optimize overall output. I know my guild is organizing something like this. Transmuting an epic gem usually requires a blue gem of the same color as the desired epic gem and a specific Eternal. The following is a list of transmutes as they are now on the PTR:

• Transmute: Flawless Amytrine: Monarch Topaz and Eternal Shadow
• Transmute: Cardinal Ruby: Scarlet Ruby and Eternal Fire
• Transmute: Dreadstone: Twilight Opal and Eternal Shadow
• Transmute: Eye of Zul: 3 Forest Emerald
• Transmute: King's Amber: Autumn’s Glow and Eternal Life
• Transmute: Majestic Zircon: Sky Sapphire and Eternal Air

The first thing to note is that players will be getting epic gems from a few sources. Players will largely be consuming the same amount of gems overall, as they will have about the same number of sockets. Some of the new recipes require epic gems, but it won't have a huge impact on the market. Since only some portion of the epic gems being consumed use current rare gems as a material means that consumption of rare gems is going to go way down. There will still be a market as the poor man's gem and as reagents for transmutes, but the prices of uncut and cut rare gems should drop significantly. Get rid of any stock that you have. The exception may be Forest Emerald, which requires 3 gems for the transmute. Only time will tell relatively how valuable they will be, but blue gems are used a lot by tanks, so I'm predicting a good market for the epic blue gems and hence Forest Emerald. Also, expect Eternal consumption to go way up with lots of new recipes and the transmutes. Its unclear how often Icy Prism will give epic gems. It will be the only thing keeping Frozen Orbs valuable. It will continue to be the only thing keeping uncommon gems in consumption. There are lots of these in Titanium Ore, so expect them to lose even more value in patch 3.2. We are looking at vendor trash level of value. According to WarcraftEcon's results, they are getting around 6 uncommon gems per prospect, and people will be prospecting a lot to get epic gems. Speaking of prospecting Titanium, this is going to be the game changer. People are stockpiling Titanium now, which may or may not be a good idea. It might be overvalued right now; it's risky to do. However, with rare gems losing demand and rare gems being the result of Titanium prospects as often of epic gems, rare gems should lose a significant amount of value from this alone. The flipside to this is that the value of Saronite and Cobalt should crash, as they will no longer be valuable to prospect. This is going to be a huge window of opportunity for Blacksmiths, who can potentially make lots of BoE stuff and disenchant it. Expect Enchanting supplies to increase in supply in the long run and prices to drop. Finally, note the materials for the new crafted items, including a new orb from the Argent Coliseum: Crusader's Orb. This list was complied by the writers at WarcraftEcon:

• Titansteel Bar
• Saronite Bar
• Arctic Fur
• Heavy Borean Leather
• Icy Dragonscale
• Nerubian Chitin
• Moonshroud
• Spellweave
• Ebonweave
• Crusader Orb
• Various epic gems, Eternals, Enchanting materials
• Deadly Saronite Dirk
• Corroded Saronite Woundbringer

These will probably enjoy a small price boost in the first month or so of patch 3.2. Remember, the first two weeks will be crazy, as everyone will want epic gems and consumption will be through the roof. Expect it to level off within about 6 weeks. What are your plans to profit in patch 3.2?

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Patch 3.2 is going to be a doozy. Epic gems are going to be introduced, and this will change the game considerably. The gems are acquired in four ways. You can either have a Grand Master Alchemist transmute them (its unknown how this will be learned or what the materials will be), prospect them from Titanium Ore, or buy them using honor or Embelm of Heroism. It is likely that designs for cuts and maybe the gems themselves will drop in the 3.2 raid, the Argent Coliseum. This will impact the game in several ways. Emblems of Heroism are going to be valuable again, so start farming your heroics and Naxxramas. Save up your honor points and Titanium Ore. If you know an alchemist, make good friends with them. Everyone and their dog will want to socket every last piece of their gear with these epic gems. Existing gems will likely plummet in value. With sockets becoming more valuable for stats, the sockets given by Socket Bracer and Socket Gloves give more stats than the benefits from other professions. What is Blizzard to do? The answer is rework many professions buffs entirely!  Just as I was about to give up Herbalism for Engineering, they finally put a lot of the profession's PvP and PvE buffs on equal footing. Since players have more stats all around, they are giving out more stats in profession buffs to make them relatively as desirable.

• Alchemy gets 3 major changes. First off, the effects of Mixology have been increased. This is likely more stats from each flask. For PvPers, an elixir called Flask of the North will be added, which will give you either spell power, attack power, or strength, and is usable in arenas. It is bought with honor and not consumed. It is unclear if this will be usable outside of arenas. Finally, Endless Healing/Mana Potions will no longer be usable in arenas and their restorative effects will be increased.
• Blacksmithing will remain the same; the sockets from Socket Bracer and Socket Gloves are now much more valuable.
• Enchanting's ring enchants will get better.
• The following Engineering item enhancements will get better: Hyperspeed Accelerators, Hand-mounted Pyro Rocket, and Reticulated Armor Webbing.
• Herbalist's Lifeblood will scale with maximum health and does more healing overall. It is also removed from the GCD.
• Scribes will have increased benefits from shoulder inscriptions.
• Dragon's Eye cuts will get better.
• Fur Linings will get better.
• Toughness gives more stamina
• Master of Anatomy gives more critical strike rating
• Tailoring embroideries will be improved.

I may still drop Herbalism for Engineering, as those Pyro Rockets are way too sweet. But with the addition of the Argent Squire buffs, things like portable mailbox from Engineering seems less fun. Are you all going to change your professions around?

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